Time to predict a winner

Here’s what I wrote for today’s GameDay section. I promise I was on the verge of picking LSU, but my gut told me otherwise:

Wow, this is hard. Two weeks of thinking this one over meant different projections nearly every day. At this point, I could be talked into any scenario. Logic says this will be a low-scoring game with two incredible defenses playing two relatively conservative offenses. Only one team can win with defense this go-round.

But you have to figure both teams will tire by the fourth quarter with matching physical styles and the emotional atmosphere. A year ago, LSU pulled ahead and won in the fourth quarter when the Tide ran out of gas. The Tigers this season have allowed 28 fourth-quarter points compared to Alabama’s 8. Also, the home-field edge is most noticeable in the closing moments. So, for now I think this is the proper prediction. It’ll surely change by kickoff.

Alabama 20, LSU 14

Here’s my track record in case you wondered.

Opp: prediction……actual … difference
Kent State: 45-7 ……….. 48-7 … 3 points
Penn State: 24-10……..27-11 … 4 points
North Texas: 52-3……..41-0 … 14 points
Arkansas: 27-17 ………..38-14 … 14 points
Florida: 27-20 …………..38-10 .. 21 points
Vanderbilt: 41-3 ……….34-0 ….10 points
Ole Miss: 38-3 …………..52-7 … 18 points
Tennessee: 38-3 ……….37-6 …. 4 points
LSU: 20-14 ………………????


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